Well tonight was all about WSOP again - this time the main event of the evening was the 2nd game of 6 in the PL Goalpoker Series. Again a night of disappointment (YES I DO want to win EVERY MTT I enter EVERY night!!!!! Is that so unreasonable?). It is looking tough now - with just 3 leaderboard places qualifying for the STT final and I'm way down in 27th (of 34!!!). So I NEED to win one week to qualify ........
So what do I think of the way I went out? Well not the hand I directly went out to, but the hand I lost most of my chips on - honestly? I don't know - I was overdefending my blind (and despite what I say, and the image I try to sow, I DON'T like the concept of "defending blinds", especially when they are not crippling).
Everyone folded to the SB who flat called. He was short stacked and I decided he was weak and just wanted to see a flop. He had suited connectors. I had 86o. To be honest, my cards didn't matter - my vision - I would raise aggressively and he would fold. He didn't!!! He reraised all in. Now I clearly have the pot odds to call and so do. The right hand wins, I feel like a muppet and my tournament is all but over. Given the cards I wasn't that large a dog - 32.4% v 67.6%, BUT they're not odds I should be risking my tournament on - or are they? Add in my fold equity and was this positive ev or negative ev? If there is a 50% chance of him folding, then when I place my bet, I am the 66% favourite to win the hand!!! BUT if I win the hand, I win a small pot, if I lose the hand I lose a big pot!!!.
Say 50% chance of winning the blinds of $150 + 32% chance of winning an all in - $1740 is $75 + $600 = $675. If he calls and his hand holds up, he has a 67% chance of winning $1740 = about $1200.
If there is a 50% / 50% chance of him folding, then, knowing the cards, I had negative ev on the hand of about $525. I MUST LEARN!!!!
Stage #399191648 Tourney ID 1134038 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $50 - 2006-05-12 16:22:11 (ET)
Table: 2 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - THE CROC ($5840 in chips)
Seat 2 - RED FEAR ($1430 in chips)
Seat 4 - POCKETLADYPL ($1740 in chips)
Seat 6 - JADEDJ ($935 in chips)
Seat 7 - PLISTONBUST ($1235 in chips)
Seat 8 - LESJOHNSON ($870 in chips)
Seat 9 - TELEPEE ($1335 in chips)
LESJOHNSON - Posts small blind $50
TELEPEE - Posts big blind $100
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TELEPEE [6h 8d]
THE CROC - Folds
RED FEAR - Folds
POCKETLADYPL - Folds
JADEDJ - Folds
PLISTONBUST - Folds
LESJOHNSON - Calls $50
TELEPEE - Raises $500 to $600
LESJOHNSON - All-In(Raise) $770 to $870
TELEPEE - Calls $270
*** FLOP *** [10s Ac Kd]
*** TURN *** [10s Ac Kd] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [10s Ac Kd 7d] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
LESJOHNSON - Shows [10d Jd] (One pair, tens)
TELEPEE - Shows [6h 8d] (One pair, eights)
LESJOHNSON Collects $1740 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($1740)
Board [10s Ac Kd 7d 8c]
Seat 1: THE CROC Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: RED FEAR Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: POCKETLADYPL Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: JADEDJ Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: PLISTONBUST (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: LESJOHNSON (small blind) won Total ($1740) All-In HI:($1740) with One pair, tens [10d Jd - B:10s,P:10d,B:Ac,B:Kd,P:Jd]
Seat 9: TELEPEE (big blind) HI:lost with One pair, eights [6h 8d - P:8d,B:8c,B:Ac,B:Kd,B:10s]
Cash games at laddies - I hit the 500 raked hands and am in tomorrows Freeroll for the first time in a few weeks - whooopeeee!!! Thought I had played badly, and lost, but no, looking at the stats, I should again be happy with results. Total play time was 1.42 hours. I made a profit of $4.58 (or $3.23 per hour) - peanuts - but that is misleading - I made 4.74 BB per hour per table (16.16 BB per hour as I averaged 3.41 tables at a time) - that's the important stat and a result I'm pleased with. ANother way of looking at it is 10.13 BB per hour. :)
Final game I played tonight was the Laddies Poker Million Freeroll - another dream - another blank!!
Net result for the night - profit of $2.58 ($2 lost on Goalpoker, $4.58 won on laddies)
By the way, does ANYONE read this blog? If so, please say hello, or I may decide not to bother anymore!!!